GDP growth slows to 2.7% in first quarter
Namibia's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to 2.7% year-on-year (y/y) in Q1 2025, down from 3.6% in Q4 2024, according to the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA). Mining growth was modest at 2% y/y, hampered by a 4% y/y decline in diamond mining due to weak global demand, although uranium and metal ore mining (gold and zinc) performed strongly.
“We project real GDP growth to ease to 3% in 2025 from 3.7% in 2024. We anticipate that the resilient services sector and robust non-diamond mining activities will continue to drive overall economic growth this year,” PSG said following the release of the national accounts for 2024.
Non-mining GDP grew by 3.1% y/y. Key contributors to GDP growth included wholesale, retail and repairs (6.5%), health (11.4%), financial and insurance services (6%), education (4.8%), and public administration and defence (3.7%).
The manufacturing sector faced challenges, with sharp declines in grain mill products (-14.1%) and fish processing (-5.1%), partially offset by growth in beverages (3.4%), non-metallic mineral products (3.4%), and bakery products (3.3%).
In the short term, easing interest rates and inflation relative to 2024 are expected to continue supporting private consumption, benefiting service sectors such as retail and finance.
“Additionally, the government's focus on human development spending will likely sustain growth in the education and health sectors. Tourism appears to be under pressure this year, weighed down by elevated geopolitical tensions, high airfare costs, and the introduction of new visa fees since April,” PSG said.
Despite favourable rainfall across Namibia in the first quarter of 2025, the livestock industry, which typically contributes around 33% to the agricultural sector (including fishing), is expected to significantly weigh on overall agricultural output. “Additionally, the fishing sector has had a slow start to the year,” PSG said.
“We project real GDP growth to ease to 3% in 2025 from 3.7% in 2024. We anticipate that the resilient services sector and robust non-diamond mining activities will continue to drive overall economic growth this year,” PSG said following the release of the national accounts for 2024.
Non-mining GDP grew by 3.1% y/y. Key contributors to GDP growth included wholesale, retail and repairs (6.5%), health (11.4%), financial and insurance services (6%), education (4.8%), and public administration and defence (3.7%).
The manufacturing sector faced challenges, with sharp declines in grain mill products (-14.1%) and fish processing (-5.1%), partially offset by growth in beverages (3.4%), non-metallic mineral products (3.4%), and bakery products (3.3%).
In the short term, easing interest rates and inflation relative to 2024 are expected to continue supporting private consumption, benefiting service sectors such as retail and finance.
“Additionally, the government's focus on human development spending will likely sustain growth in the education and health sectors. Tourism appears to be under pressure this year, weighed down by elevated geopolitical tensions, high airfare costs, and the introduction of new visa fees since April,” PSG said.
Despite favourable rainfall across Namibia in the first quarter of 2025, the livestock industry, which typically contributes around 33% to the agricultural sector (including fishing), is expected to significantly weigh on overall agricultural output. “Additionally, the fishing sector has had a slow start to the year,” PSG said.
