FMD: Understanding the potential impact of an outbreak

The Namibian agricultural economy relies heavily on livestock production, which is valued at over N$6 billion. Beef production, in particular, contributes significantly to the country’s GDP.

However, livestock production in Namibia faces several challenges, including climatic events such as droughts and floods, as well as the prevalence of livestock diseases, among others.

The development and sustainability of Namibia’s beef industry have relied on export markets such as the EU, the UK, Norway and South Africa, among others.

Despite recurrent challenges, the industry has demonstrated resilience and market expansion, targeting new destinations such as China, the US, the Middle East and other African markets. This growth can be attributed to a well-organised sector in terms of governance, compliance with international trade protocols, and adherence to the standards of the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH).

Compliance with animal health regulations is therefore a key factor in securing market access and enhancing consumer confidence in our livestock and associated products. It also ensures the competitive sustainability of our meat industry against major global producers.

Imminent threat

Despite Namibia’s excellent animal health status, the country faces the imminent threat of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD), which is prevalent in neighbouring countries, particularly South Africa, where efforts to contain its spread have faced challenges.

FMD has reportedly been confirmed in the north-eastern district of Botswana and has recently been suspected in the Northern Cape of South Africa, which borders Namibia to the south. This indicates that the disease may be spreading rapidly, placing Namibia at increased risk.

To this end, Namibia’s livestock industry players should remain on high alert and prepare to manage the potential consequences of an outbreak. The Government, through its Directorate of Veterinary Services (DVS), together with industry stakeholders such as the Livestock and Livestock Products Board of Namibia (LLPBN), is strengthening inspection and biosecurity measures at all borders.

These measures include the disinfection of vehicles and people, as well as movement restrictions on livestock and their by-products from South Africa.

Such efforts require collaboration among all stakeholders, including GRN institutions and the private sector, to prevent an outbreak in any form, as the consequences would be devastating for multiple sectors of the economy, affecting farmers, workers and consumers alike.

Furthermore, farmers’ unions and associations, cooperatives, retail shops, butcheries, lodges, hotels and restaurants, as well as individual farmers and consumers, must work collectively to protect the industry and the broader economy from severe disruption.

The possible impact of FMD, in brief:

1. Loss of export markets and income: The country could lose its longstanding access to lucrative markets, forfeiting both current and potential future opportunities.
2. Increased GRN spending: The government would be compelled to increase budgetary allocations to agriculture, particularly for vaccination campaigns and enhanced biosecurity measures. This may divert funds from other developmental priorities.
3. Lower livestock prices: Prices could decline drastically due to reduced demand for livestock and their by-products, coupled with oversupply in the domestic market following the loss of export markets.
4. Rising production costs and food prices: Certain production costs, such as veterinary services, may increase, potentially leading to higher prices for products such as milk.
5. Increased debt and weaker repayment capacity: Reduced household and business incomes could lead to increased borrowing or difficulties in repaying farm loans, as livestock sales decline and disposable incomes come under pressure.
6. Loss of employment and household income:

a. Farm workers: Reduced farm income could result in workforce reductions, retrenchments or pay cuts. Casual workers would be particularly vulnerable.

b. Abattoir workers: Reduced demand for meat or market closures could force abattoirs to scale down or cease operations, leading to job losses and reduced household income.

c. Truck drivers and loading staff: Restrictions on livestock movement could bring transport operations to a standstill, affecting drivers and loading personnel. This would also have knock-on effects on fuel suppliers and motor mechanics servicing the transport sector.

d. Input suppliers: Reduced farm production and income would decrease demand for animal feed, ear tags, fuel and breeding stock, potentially forcing suppliers to downsize due to lower sales.

e. Vendors: Restrictions on the movement and consumption of livestock by-products could severely affect informal businesses, such as Kapana vendors, who rely on purchasing and selling beef.

What can Namibian farmers do to assist the Government and safeguard their livelihoods?

1. Adherence and reporting: Strictly adhere to prescribed disease-control protocols, particularly at borders and entry points. Report any suspicious livestock movements from affected areas or countries, as well as any symptoms consistent with FMD, to the relevant authorities.
2. Stay informed: Keep up to date with reliable information from official sources such as GRN, MAWLR/DVS, LLPBN and farmers’ unions.
3. Strengthen biosecurity: Implement appropriate internal biosecurity measures at auction sites, farm gates and kraal gates.
4. Strategic livestock sales: Consider selling less productive animals - such as old cows, barren cows, poor performers, oxen, and castrates - while body condition and prices remain favourable. Such decisions must be carefully calculated and implemented without unnecessary delay, given the uncertainty surrounding the disease’s spread.
5. Emergency savings and prudent spending: Allocate income from livestock sales towards essential expenses, including workers’ wages, feed, veterinary care, fuel and household needs such as food, healthcare and education, to sustain livelihoods during potential disruptions.
6. Resilience: Farmers must remain courageous, positive, patient and strategic in navigating this period, as they have done during previous challenges such as Covid-19, lumpy skin disease, droughts, floods and locust infestations.

*Erastus Ngaruka, Technical Advisor: Livestock and Rangeland Management at Agribank