Livestock demand to grow globally
Jacques du Toit
According to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034, released in July 2025, significant shifts in global meat and dairy markets could have important implications for Namibian livestock farmers.
The comprehensive assessment, jointly produced by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations, forecasts that global consumption of meat, dairy products, and fish will rise substantially over the next decade - driven primarily by increasing incomes and population growth in middle-income countries across Asia and Africa.
Strong growth in protein demand
The report projects that global meat consumption will grow by approximately 48 million tonnes over the next ten years, with poultry leading the expansion. Significantly for Namibian producers, per-capita consumption of animal-source foods is expected to rise by 6% globally, with the strongest growth in lower-middle-income countries, where daily intake could increase by 25%.
“Sub-Saharan Africa will experience a 33% increase in meat consumption over the next decade, driven by a rapidly growing population expected to rise from 1.5 billion to 1.8 billion people,” the report states.
Beef sector outlook
For beef producers, the outlook shows mixed signals but ultimately positive medium-term prospects. Global beef consumption is projected to reach 84 million tonnes by 2034, although per-capita consumption will remain relatively stable at around 6 kilograms per year.
The report notes that the Near East and Asia are expected to see increases in per-capita beef consumption of about 0.6 kilograms per year, driven by a growing middle class and higher incomes.
Beef prices in nominal terms are expected to rise in the short term as cattle inventories are rebuilt globally, before stabilising over the medium term. In real terms, however, beef prices are projected to decline by about 8% by 2034 compared to current levels — emphasising the need for productivity improvements to maintain profitability.
Small stock opportunities
Global sheep production is anticipated to increase by 15% over the outlook period, reaching 19 million tonnes by 2034. The report highlights that the Middle East and North Africa will remain significant importers of sheep meat, with demand driven by rising middle-class consumption.
“Sheep meat has remained an essential source of protein for many consumers in the Middle East and North Africa,” the report notes, adding that traditional preferences for sheep meat persist despite the availability of other protein sources.
Dairy sector growth
Dairy product consumption is also expected to grow strongly, particularly in Africa. Global milk production is forecast to expand at 1.8% per annum, reaching 1,146 million tonnes by 2034, with most growth driven by higher yields per animal rather than herd expansion.
“Improvements in genetics, better agricultural practices, and digitalisation supporting precision agriculture will contribute significantly to enhancing productivity,” the outlook states.
The productivity imperative
A core message throughout the report is the need for productivity gains. While global agricultural productivity is expected to rise, real prices for commodities - including meat - are projected to decline in the medium term.
“Individual farmers, especially smallholders who are often most vulnerable to market shocks and have limited capacity to adopt innovative technologies, face growing pressure to improve their productivity,” the report warns.
Productivity gains of 10–17% in livestock systems over the next decade are expected from improved breeding, better farm management, and more efficient feed use. These improvements are essential not only for profitability but also for reducing the environmental footprint of livestock production.
Environmental considerations
While direct greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are projected to rise by 6% by 2034, the carbon intensity of production is expected to decline across all regions. Productivity improvements mean fewer animals are needed to produce the same amount of meat or milk, reducing emissions per unit of output.
The report suggests that emissions reductions of up to 7% below current levels are possible by 2034 if productivity increases by 15% and emission-reduction technologies are widely adopted.
Market access remains critical
Finally, the outlook reinforces the importance of open, rules-based international trade for agricultural growth.
“Multilateral cooperation and a rules-based agricultural trade system are crucial for facilitating trade flows, balancing food deficits and surpluses, stabilising prices, and enhancing food security,” the report states.
For Namibian livestock farmers, this underscores the need to maintain quality standards, meet international health and safety requirements, and build relationships that open access to regional and global markets.
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According to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034, released in July 2025, significant shifts in global meat and dairy markets could have important implications for Namibian livestock farmers.
The comprehensive assessment, jointly produced by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations, forecasts that global consumption of meat, dairy products, and fish will rise substantially over the next decade - driven primarily by increasing incomes and population growth in middle-income countries across Asia and Africa.
Strong growth in protein demand
The report projects that global meat consumption will grow by approximately 48 million tonnes over the next ten years, with poultry leading the expansion. Significantly for Namibian producers, per-capita consumption of animal-source foods is expected to rise by 6% globally, with the strongest growth in lower-middle-income countries, where daily intake could increase by 25%.
“Sub-Saharan Africa will experience a 33% increase in meat consumption over the next decade, driven by a rapidly growing population expected to rise from 1.5 billion to 1.8 billion people,” the report states.
Beef sector outlook
For beef producers, the outlook shows mixed signals but ultimately positive medium-term prospects. Global beef consumption is projected to reach 84 million tonnes by 2034, although per-capita consumption will remain relatively stable at around 6 kilograms per year.
The report notes that the Near East and Asia are expected to see increases in per-capita beef consumption of about 0.6 kilograms per year, driven by a growing middle class and higher incomes.
Beef prices in nominal terms are expected to rise in the short term as cattle inventories are rebuilt globally, before stabilising over the medium term. In real terms, however, beef prices are projected to decline by about 8% by 2034 compared to current levels — emphasising the need for productivity improvements to maintain profitability.
Small stock opportunities
Global sheep production is anticipated to increase by 15% over the outlook period, reaching 19 million tonnes by 2034. The report highlights that the Middle East and North Africa will remain significant importers of sheep meat, with demand driven by rising middle-class consumption.
“Sheep meat has remained an essential source of protein for many consumers in the Middle East and North Africa,” the report notes, adding that traditional preferences for sheep meat persist despite the availability of other protein sources.
Dairy sector growth
Dairy product consumption is also expected to grow strongly, particularly in Africa. Global milk production is forecast to expand at 1.8% per annum, reaching 1,146 million tonnes by 2034, with most growth driven by higher yields per animal rather than herd expansion.
“Improvements in genetics, better agricultural practices, and digitalisation supporting precision agriculture will contribute significantly to enhancing productivity,” the outlook states.
The productivity imperative
A core message throughout the report is the need for productivity gains. While global agricultural productivity is expected to rise, real prices for commodities - including meat - are projected to decline in the medium term.
“Individual farmers, especially smallholders who are often most vulnerable to market shocks and have limited capacity to adopt innovative technologies, face growing pressure to improve their productivity,” the report warns.
Productivity gains of 10–17% in livestock systems over the next decade are expected from improved breeding, better farm management, and more efficient feed use. These improvements are essential not only for profitability but also for reducing the environmental footprint of livestock production.
Environmental considerations
While direct greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are projected to rise by 6% by 2034, the carbon intensity of production is expected to decline across all regions. Productivity improvements mean fewer animals are needed to produce the same amount of meat or milk, reducing emissions per unit of output.
The report suggests that emissions reductions of up to 7% below current levels are possible by 2034 if productivity increases by 15% and emission-reduction technologies are widely adopted.
Market access remains critical
Finally, the outlook reinforces the importance of open, rules-based international trade for agricultural growth.
“Multilateral cooperation and a rules-based agricultural trade system are crucial for facilitating trade flows, balancing food deficits and surpluses, stabilising prices, and enhancing food security,” the report states.
For Namibian livestock farmers, this underscores the need to maintain quality standards, meet international health and safety requirements, and build relationships that open access to regional and global markets.
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