Middle East conflict drives global air travel decline, IATA says

Global air passenger demand fell by 3.4% in April compared with the same month last year, as the war in the Middle East continued to weigh heavily on international travel, according to new data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

The decline was largely driven by a collapse in demand for Middle Eastern carriers, which recorded a 46.6% drop in passenger traffic during the month. Excluding the Middle East, global demand would have risen by 1.2%, highlighting the extent to which the conflict affected the aviation industry.

International passenger demand fell by 5.3% year-on-year, while domestic demand remained unchanged. Overall airline capacity declined by 2.9%, and the global passenger load factor – a measure of how full aircraft are – slipped slightly to 83.1%.

“The 46.6% fall in demand for carriers in the Middle East due to war in the region was so acute that it dragged overall demand down 3.4%,” said Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA.

“The situation for air transport remains highly volatile. The cost of jet fuel more than doubled in April, which is pushing airfares up. Forward schedule data is showing a reduced offering in the coming months, indicating that airlines are balancing high fuel costs and weaker demand.”

The Middle East was the only region to experience a severe contraction. Passenger demand among airlines based in the region fell by 48.1%, while capacity dropped by 38.4%. Load factors fell by more than 13 percentage points to 70.1%.

IATA attributed the decline to the ongoing conflict involving Iran, although it noted that the pace of decline had slowed slightly compared with March following the implementation of an uneasy ceasefire.

Elsewhere, passenger markets remained resilient.

Latin American airlines recorded the strongest international growth, with demand rising 8.9% year-on-year. Capacity increased by 7.2%, while load factors reached 84.6%.

Asian carriers reported a 3% increase in demand and achieved a record April load factor of 87.5%. However, IATA noted a slowdown in traffic between Japan and China due to continuing political tensions.

African airlines posted a 2.2% increase in demand, supported by a 1.2% rise in capacity. The region's load factor improved to 77.9%.

European airlines saw demand rise by 0.9%, while North American carriers recorded no growth. IATA said direct travel between Europe and Asia increased by more than 15% as passengers increasingly avoided routes transiting through the Middle East.

Domestic travel markets presented a mixed picture. Growth in Brazil, China and Japan was offset by declines in Australia, India and the United States, resulting in overall domestic demand remaining flat.

China's domestic market expanded by 1.2%, while Japan recorded growth of 3.7%. In contrast, domestic traffic declined by 2.9% in India and by 0.6% in the United States.

Despite the challenges posed by geopolitical tensions and rising fuel costs, most regions continued to report growth, suggesting that underlying demand for air travel remains relatively strong. However, IATA warned that airlines face a difficult operating environment as they balance higher costs, disrupted travel patterns and uncertain demand in the months ahead.