Green hydrogen; slowly but surely

The chief executive of Hyphen Hydrogen Energy, Marco Raffinetti, says green molecules such as hydrogen produced from sunlight and water in Namibia remain a compelling investment, arguing that “the cost curve doesn’t lie”.

Raffinetti says that three years ago, Namibia was being described as the next great green-energy frontier.

“A sparsely populated country with world-class sun and wind, poised to become a green hydrogen superpower. Since then, the mood has cooled,” he says. “Financial close on large-scale projects is taking longer because of slower market demand ramp-up and geopolitical headwinds.”

The US$10 billion, 5-7 gigawatt wind- and solar-powered green hydrogen and ammonia project in the Tsau //Khaeb National Park near Lüderitz is targeting first production in 2029.

“Financing, offtake agreements and infrastructure build-out remain genuinely hard. But the fundamentals that made Namibia attractive remain unchanged, and the onward march of progress and technological innovation is inevitable,” he says.

“As the industry scales and costs continue to fall, the countries with the best renewable resources, backed by supportive government policies, will lead in green hydrogen supply. Namibia’s potential has not diminished; the timeline has simply turned out to be longer than first advertised.”

Raffinetti argues that the opportunity for Namibia has not passed. “It hasn’t. The scale-up has been slower than the early hype promised, but the underlying fundamentals that position Namibia as a major emerging supplier remain unchanged. If anything, it has strengthened,” he wrote in an opinion piece distributed to local media outlets by Core Public Relations on Sunday, 6 September 2026.

Cost gap narrowing

“To understand why, it helps to look for the signal among the market noise and focus on the direction in which the global energy system is actually heading,” he says.

Green hydrogen, produced by splitting water using renewable electricity, and its derivative, green ammonia, remain more expensive than “grey” hydrogen made from natural gas or coal. But the gap is narrowing, driven by the same forces that have made solar and wind among the cheapest sources of new electricity generation in many markets: rapidly declining technology costs.

Raffinetti says analysts project Namibia’s production cost will fall to between US$1.50 and US$2.30 per kilogram of hydrogen as projects scale up.

“This would place Namibian green hydrogen among the world’s cheapest producers,” he says. “The combination of Namibia’s exceptional renewable resources, low country risk and strong government support makes for a very attractive proposition.”

Forecasting when cost parity will be reached is difficult and will vary by market and how carbon is priced, he says. “However, the critical point is that the trajectory is no longer in serious doubt.”

Raffinetti says the question has shifted from “if” to “when”, with each year of declining renewable-energy and electrolyser manufacturing costs bringing that point closer.

Hydrocarbon risks

“Countries that import hydrocarbons remain exposed to price spikes and supply disruptions triggered by wars, shipping chokepoints and geopolitical rivalries – risks that have recently intensified,” Raffinetti says.

“China’s energy planners, for instance, have explicitly flagged disruption as a reason to accelerate green-fuel development. Domestically producible green molecules are a hedge against exactly this kind of shock.”

For Namibia and its neighbours, most of which import refined fuels and, in some cases, natural gas, green hydrogen and ammonia could provide a way to convert abundant renewable resources into an energy commodity that does not depend on imported energy.

“That is a structural advantage no amount of near-term cost pressure erases,” he says.

Raffinetti points to targeted subsidies, mandates and guaranteed offtake that helped make wind and solar affordable and eventually among the world’s cheapest sources of electricity.

Greater manufacturing capacity and the rapid expansion of wind and solar installations helped drive costs down, he argues.

“Green hydrogen and ammonia are now walking the same path, albeit a step or two behind. Government support – feed-in-style subsidies, blending mandates, concessional finance and other measures to help establish the industry – is what gets the industry built while costs are still too high to compete unaided.

“That support is necessary today. But it is a bridge, not the destination. The end state, just as it now is for solar, wind and batteries, is an industry that undercuts fossil incumbents on cost alone.”

China leads the way

China leads the world in clean-energy generation, according to Raffinetti.

“China produced more renewable electricity in 2025 alone than the entire European Union consumed across all sources. It did so by treating solar, wind and batteries as industrial and strategic assets, not moral ones,” he says.

“China is applying the same logic to green hydrogen. Beijing has folded hydrogen support into its national energy law. It has launched a pilot programme pushing green hydrogen into heavy industries such as steel and ammonia, and embedded a 200-gigawatt electrolyser capacity target in its 2026-30 five-year plan.”

Raffinetti says China’s National Energy Administration has framed green-fuel development as a strategic priority for energy security, with operational green hydrogen capacity more than doubling year on year.

“None of this is driven by a domestic climate lobby; it is driven by the same calculus that made China the world’s dominant manufacturer of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric cars.”